Data on the number of foreigners who left the USA this year is currently being reported by multiple sources, but there are significant discrepancies in the figures and the methods used to arrive at them. The numbers you cited are in the same range as some of these reports.
A Yahoo search shows even the NYPost thinking that are 1M gone is pretty rational.
Here’s a breakdown of the available information, including the data and methods from credible organizations:
Key Findings and Reported Numbers
- Pew Research Center: A leading non-partisan research organization, Pew analyzed U.S. Census Bureau data and found that the foreign-born population in the U.S. declined by nearly 1.5 million between January and June of this year. This marks the first decline in the immigrant population in decades. The report indicates that the foreign-born population, which includes both legal and unauthorized residents, was 53.3 million in January and fell to 51.9 million by June.
- Center for Immigration Studies (CIS): This organization, which advocates for reduced immigration, published an analysis estimating a decline of 2.2 million in the total foreign-born population from January to July. Their report notes that this figure includes a loss of 600,000 non-citizens with legal status.
- U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS): The DHS Secretary announced that 1.6 million illegal aliens had left the country in her first 200 days in office. The DHS attributed this decline to new policies and an ad campaign urging undocumented immigrants to leave.
Methodological Considerations and Discrepancies
It’s crucial to understand the methods behind these numbers, as they explain the variations in the reports:
- Reliance on Different Surveys and Data:
- Pew Research Center and Center for Immigration Studies both base their analyses on data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS is a monthly survey of households, and changes in the foreign-born population are estimated from these surveys.
- The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) figure of 1.6 million is based on its own internal data, but specific details on how this estimate was calculated have not been widely released, according to reports from news outlets like CBS News. This figure is specifically for “illegal aliens” and does not necessarily account for legal immigrants who may have left the country.
- Challenges with Survey Data:
- Experts, including those cited by CBS News, caution that using the CPS to measure short-term changes in the foreign-born population comes with limitations. The sample size for this specific demographic is small, which can lead to wide margins of error.
- The Census Bureau itself advises against using the CPS to measure the levels or changes in immigration.
- One study from the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) suggests that the numbers from the CPS are likely flawed. The PIIE analysis argues that a drop of 2.2 million immigrants would lead to an “implausible” drop in the overall U.S. adult population and massive, nonsensical shifts in the labor market. Their projection for net migration in all of 2025 is a much smaller number, ranging from a gain of 115,000 to a loss of 525,000.
- Defining “Left the USA”:
- The term “foreigners who left the USA” is complex. The reports often use a measure of net migration, which is the difference between the number of immigrants entering and emigrants leaving the country. A decline in the foreign-born population does not necessarily mean a mass exodus, but rather that emigration and deportations have exceeded new arrivals.
- The Pew report notes that the decline is an “early indication that President Trump’s hard-line immigration agenda is leading people to depart—whether through deportation or by choice.”
- DHS’s figure focuses on “illegal aliens,” while Pew and CIS include both legal and unauthorized immigrants in their total foreign-born population figures.
In conclusion, while multiple reports suggest a significant decline in the foreign-born population this year, the exact number is a subject of debate among researchers. The most commonly cited figure is around 1.5 million, based on analysis from the non-partisan Pew Research Center, but other sources have reported both higher and lower numbers. These discrepancies stem from the different data sources used and the inherent challenges in accurately measuring population changes, particularly for unauthorized immigrants.