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CesarettiYtnore:ttea07rs Ada f9 y3tamh0Mft · A very interesting opinion piece.“The West will fold to pay in rubles for gas and oil from the Russia … “I’ve read the comments to be stunned. Not someone who understands us and makes a logical speech.
Who says we’ll earn it. Who says that soon we will buy all the gas we need from Algeria, so the problem is not there. Who says it’s a useless Putin’s whimper. A little bit of everything (or nothing).
For many years working in the oil and gas well drilling industry and for several years in the oil and Gas procurement industry (Blue Green Holding SA, in Italy present as Tamoil) here is a few information. For Italian companies it won’t make much difference to pay in one currency rather than in another.
However, you will need to get that currency and you can only do it by buying rubles from the Russian Central Bank: you can’t find one billion euros a day in rubles at the corner of the road. And they buy rubles paying in euros or dollars. This is how it happens that the payment for supplies goes directly to the Russian State, without transiting from Russian oil companies like Gasprom. We bypass the sanctions in practice. One billion euros a day directly in the Russian cash registers and immediately spendable.
In addition, the hunger for rubles on the market will strengthen the Russian currency, canceling or significantly decreasing the effects of devaluation on the currency provided by the sanctions. A new principle is being created. Not only euros or dollars for international transactions but also rubles that will be accepted in payment also by European companies, knowing that they are easily resellers. There is no possibility of supplying gas or oil from other suppliers in a short time. To bring gas to Italy you need gas pipes that are NOT there and those that are there are already almost at the maximum reach.
It takes international agreements and several years to make another pipeline. To buy liquefied American gas and transport it by ship you need ships and gas that WE DON’T HAVE. In other words we have 2 or 3; to meet the need it would take 30 or 40 and they cost a lot of money (about 50 billion investments) and it takes years to build them, besides the fact that American gas is much more expensive than the Russian one, being loaded with gods also Transportation, liquidation and refasking costs. Biden said he can give us up to 15 billion liquefied gas.
Europe needs 155 billion. If we start drilling in the Adriatic again we can pull out (in a few years) maybe 5 or 6 billion cubic meters annually. We need 30 of them, the problem is a little lighter, but it doesn’t solve it. For oil, none of the major producers have agreed to increase the production to withstand Russian oil. Saudi Arabia didn’t even want to talk to the Americans and called itself neutral and doesn’t apply sanctions to Russia .
Venezuela has openly lined up with the Russia Let’s go to Arab Emirates. On my way to IRAN. Many Countries are tired of US interference in their homes. IRAN just can’t take it anymore. In Venezuela (for Maduro) the only good American is a dead American. Saudi “friends” got a few rascals from Americans and the young prince, if called Biden, he doesn’t even pick up the phone. The Arab Emirates have too many Russian interests on their territory to host Putin. Who’s gonna give us oil? So much oil … Santa Claus ? Nuclear ? 10 years old. The green energy? 10-15 years and stratospheric costs and still isn’t a definite and real solution, Americans?
They can’t support the European needs. They produce a lot but they also have a huge internal need and 330 million inhabitants and alone they are absolutely unable to meet European demands. 60% of the oil that Europe consumes is Russian. It’s an ocean of oil that feeds almost half a billion cars and trucks. And it is also easily sold to other buyers such as India, for example, which has a definite hunger for it and has 3 times the inhabitants of Europe. And the price is still rising: oil at 115 dollars (il Brent even 121), gas price at 295 euro the megavator, on 23 February it was 88 euro. If we thought we would impoverish the Russians with sanctions we had the wrong strategy. We’re getting them scary rich. The ruble has already become “possible” again, from the peak of 156 rubles for a dollar, we are already at about 106 and the “race” to the ruble has not begun. Figure it out. We tickled him. Valued the coin by 20% and increased their income by 100%. There is definitely no credible alternative at the moment. In 5 years maybe. Not in 5 months. The choice is between agreeing with the Russians and maintaining a minimum of trade relations, or taking an apocalyptic economic flare.
They would close half of the energetic factories in the country. There would be millions of unemployed. Germany has already expressed itself clearly: we do whatever you want, any sanctions, but leave oil and gas alone. Idem France which is certainly more independent than us but has identical problems. More clear than this… but leaving oil and gas alone and paying in rubles, the sanctions are like they weren’t for the Russia . They only hurt those who apply them. And the payment in rubles is not that we should “fold” to do it.
Either we do it or they close the taps. The Russians can solve their sales problems in a reasonable time, especially oil. We’re heading to the bankruptcy: it’s safe. Sacrificing some pedestrians the Russians are winning a world class game that will change the world’s economic balance. And if it’s not called chess to the King (hopefully it’s not a madman), I don’t know what to call it. And in Italy there are people who sing victory (and can’t even play chess). I hope I have been helpful and clarified everyone’s ideas. “(Carlo De’ Couppolati; Graduate in Economics and International Relations, expert in International Contractualism)