stock here, this is curious. Interesting. Worthwhile.

Holly Gruhl

3h·Grafton

Did you believe the government and Big Pharma’s claim that the Covid Pandemic was caused by the unvaccinated? That was totally false. In fact, the vaccinated got Covid more often than the unvaccinated. Now there are 1125 side effects from the Covid “Vaccine” which were hidden from the public. The same thing happened with childhood vaccinations. The original Safety and Effectiveness studies failed miserably and Big Pharma got the government to declare vaccines a Biologic so they would be exempted from safety and effectiveness studies. As, for example, behavioral problems, including Autism, began to skyrocket, people began investigating the effectiveness of childhood vaccines. The first hint was that the unvaccinated Amish had zero Autism and 1/20th the number of behavioral problems as vaccinated Americans. A Physician named Dr.. Weller had more than 1 thousand patients who were unvaccinated and more than 1 thousand who were vaccinated and he found that those in identical circumstances were 20 times more likely to have behavioral problems if they got the childhood vaccines. In the 50’s when I was a child, there were no vaccines, for children other than polio and smallpox. Now there are 90, often given in as many as 9 on the first day of life, all with long lasting neurotoxins. RFK Jr. is finally doing definitive safety and efficacy experiments. My children were vaccinated. If I were raising kids now, I would not vaccinate them until the outcome of RFKs studies. In the meantime, there have been interesting studies on what is called the “Homeostatic Cycle”, which shows that children who have a childhood disease and recover from that stressor end up with a surge in immunological, physical, and mental development. Those getting the vaccine and avoiding these disease stressors don’t get those benefits.

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Mike S.

2h·Fairfield Manor

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Holly Gruhl

2h·Grafton

Mike

Those are facts. Unfortunately, we all need to SEEK the truth in order to find it. There are a lot of vaccine injured people, most recently due to Covid. They have serious disabilities. I used to think everybody is entitled to their own opinion. However, if one disagrees with the MSM that opinion is often blocked in Social Media (censorship). Free and fair debate is how Americans used to get at the truth. It is not that easy to obtain truth since censorship got a grip, lying became acceptable, and there is no longer free and fair debate. In fact, accepting what you are fed is downright dangerous. I’m a Registered Nurse. I vaccinated my kids. I grew up in the 50’s. Over the years I have totally lost confidence in our health care system. I am not alone. There is a Crisis of Confidence in the US Healthcare System. You will pay a price, as your children will, if you believe everything you read in MSM. Consider this. I did not ever get a Covid vaccine. Early in the pandemic, I went to the symphony in Tucson, where a vaccine card was required for admittance. I had a fake vaccine card, but I’m sure everybody in attendance had the Covid vaccine. My husband and I both got Covid there (from vaccinated people!!!!). Eventually, the symphony was cancelled. When the symphony again opened after Covid, the conductor lamented that so many in the TSO had died. Indeed, many musicians had died and the audience had thinned out considerably They were all vaccinated. They didn’t die from Covid, I am certain of that. That explanation would take more room than NextDoor offers. The gullible will not survive longterm in this world today. It’s a dangerous place.

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frank dailey

2h·Harrison

Holly

funny, thanks for the humor

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Mike S.

1h · Edited·Fairfield Manor

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Holly Gruhl

1h·Grafton

frank

I really don’t think it’s funny. There are people that I love who are vaccine injured. Life is a humbling experience. If you are not humbled by an early experience, you’ll have as many opportunities as you need.

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Julia B.

1h·Grafton North

Holly

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frank dailey

1h · Edited·Harrison

Holly

you have no clue as to what you re posting. for instance biologics go through a different process for approval than classical chemical drugs but still have to show efficacy and safety. Also take the mRNA covid vaccine, it is classified as a biologic because it is a biological molecule and in the case of the Pfizer vaccine produced by a biological organism. You might be surprised to hear you have mRNA in your cells but clearly not a lot of ones for intelligence.

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Alyssa H.

57m · Edited·Saukville Village

Holly

I remember when they said you won’t get covid if you get the vaccine. That didn’t age well. Oh, and the “winter of death” because of the unvaccinated. That didn’t age well either. I know vaccinated ppl that had covid multiple times. I also know unvaccinated ppl who had covid multiple times. My opinion is that it all depends on how strong your immune system is (just like with any other virus). Myself? I rarely get sick. I did not get the covid vaccine and I have yet to catch covid. My son had covid. I took care of him and didn’t catch it. I’ve had all the vaccines one gets as a child (and so has my son). But not the covid vaccine. My reasoning for not getting the covid vaccine? Of all the vaccines I’ve gotten, I’ve never caught any of the diseases they prevent. No point in getting a vaccine that doesn’t keep you from get the virus.

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Holly Gruhl

5m·Grafton

Alyssa

That is only one problem with the Covid vaccine. There always needs to be an “informed” consent. Side effects etc. are always on the enclosure that comes with the multi-dose bottle containing the so-called vaccine. The enclosure that came with the Covid vaccine was blank, no disclosures at all, yet that drug was MANDATED. There is a law (Emergency Use Authorization) that if there is an effective treatment for a disease, then the vaccine cannot be mandated. Ivermectin is cheap, safe, and an effective cure for Covid, so Ivermectin was banned, so that the Covid vaccines could be mandated. The Covid vaccine changes the DNA of the recipients FOREVER, and the “vaccine” is actually a gene therapy. There are many many “side effects”, many of them lethal for some people. The world death rate was 59 million 2019, and 59 million in 2020 (the first year of Covid) but jumped to 70 million in 2021 (the first year of the “vaccine”) and it’s slowly risen from 70 million ever since. That’s called the “excess death rate”. There weren’t 11 million Covid deaths in 2021, so where did these deaths come from? It’s complicated. The Covid vaccine floods the body with a permanent variant of the Covid Spike Protein that disables P53 and B1 immune cells that are responsible for fighting disease and for removing foreign proteins like cancer cells. Cancer has tripled since the Covid vaccine was introduced. Another problem is that the Covid vaccine disables 1/3 of the immune system and replaces it with capabilities that fight the now extinct variant of Covid for which the vaccine was developed. Each Covid shot disables another third of the immune system and all manner of diseases can result. Trust your instincts. They are excellent!

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Holly Gruhl

4m·Grafton

Julia Are you wearing a Dunce Cap?

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Nan Scott

3m·North Meadow

frank

, see the Film, titled Protcal 7. Also the US Government first patented the covid virus scam in 2012. The lot of you Vax proponents sound most likely to be on the Pharmaceutical Industrial Complex payroll. Let me remind sane people that the vaxjab pharmaceutical companies have legal immunity that protects them from being sued. (pun intended) Thankfully there’s a couple of cases that have found their way around that. MKE people must get their heads out of the sand as several countries around the world have made headlines, admitted their errors, and are reversing policies for over one year now. This IS a matter of public record around the world. Including from the United States. People that were fired have gotten their jobs back AND received compensation. Again, public record. AND, all of these records can be easily parsed and found on the X database through search.

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frank dailey

2m·Harrison

Nan

hilarious as covid was not on anybody’s radar, but get your antennae out

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frank dailey

Now·Harrison

Holly

it is despicable you went to a venue where they said you needed to be vaccinated. you are deplorable

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stock here: My ideas, A-Eye compilation

The Psychology of Manipulation – Expanded Guide

Preface: Building Resistance to Manipulation

Manipulation thrives when individuals are uncertain of their own worth, boundaries, or perceptions. One of the most effective ways to make yourself less prone to manipulation is to develop self-awareness and emotional resilience. This means understanding your triggers, maintaining strong personal boundaries, and practicing assertive communication. By cultivating a grounded sense of self, you are less likely to be swayed by guilt, flattery, or intimidation.

It is also important to learn to pause before reacting. Many manipulators rely on immediate emotional responses to gain leverage. By slowing down, taking a breath, and analyzing the situation logically, you gain the upper hand. Surrounding yourself with honest, supportive relationships also helps build the confidence needed to recognize manipulation and to step away when necessary.

Common Manipulation Tactics

Gaslighting

Gaslighting is one of the most insidious forms of manipulation. It involves denial, lying, misinformation, and contradictions to make you doubt your own sanity, memory, or perception. Over time, victims of gaslighting may begin to distrust their own experiences and rely on the manipulator’s version of reality.

• ✅ Do this: Call out the Bullshit.   Disengage and walk away.

Origin of Gaslighting

The term ‘gaslighting’ comes from the 1938 play Gas Light (later adapted into films in the 1940s). In the story, a husband subtly manipulates his wife into believing she is going insane. He dims the gas lights in their home and, when she points it out, insists that nothing has changed. This relentless denial of reality causes her to question her senses and mental stability. The term has since become shorthand for psychological abuse where the victim’s perception of reality is undermined.

Historically, gaslighting was first described in contexts of abusive relationships, but the term is now used widely to describe manipulation in personal, workplace, and even political settings. Its effectiveness lies in its gradual erosion of confidence—by sowing seeds of doubt, manipulators can control their victims with minimal overt force.

Victimhood

Manipulators sometimes present themselves as perpetual victims. This tactic exploits your goodwill, guilty conscience, or protective instincts. By constantly appearing weak or mistreated, they can make you feel obligated to help, even at your own expense.

• ✅ Do this: Don’t get emotionally entangled—maintain perspective and distance yourself if necessary.

Guilt Tripping

This tactic involves passive-aggressive reminders of your past mistakes. By making you feel indebted, manipulators pressure you into compliance. For example, they might say, ‘After all I’ve done for you, this is how you repay me?’

• ✅ Do this: Respond with empathy but trust your instincts—don’t allow guilt to override reason.

Constant Criticism

Manipulators marginalize, ridicule, and dismiss others to gain superiority. The victim often feels belittled and begins to doubt their own competence, making them easier to control.

• ✅ Do this: Simply acknowledge and move on. ‘Thank you for your opinion’ is often enough.

Negative Humor

Sarcasm and cutting jokes are used to make others feel insecure while allowing the manipulator to hide behind the guise of humor. These remarks can erode confidence and create a toxic environment.

• ✅ Do this: Stay calm, smile, and turn the spotlight back on the manipulator by asking questions that force them to explain their ‘joke.’

Additional Manipulation Tactics

Narcissistic Triangulation

Narcissists often manipulate by creating triangles in relationships—bringing in a third party to control dynamics. For example, a narcissistic partner may praise another person to make you feel jealous or insecure, thereby reinforcing your dependence on their approval.

• ✅ Do this: Recognize the tactic and refuse to compete for validation. Assert your own boundaries and disengage from the triangle.

Bullying & Intimidation

Bullies, whether in the workplace or personal life, rely on fear to manipulate. They may use threats, aggressive body language, or repeated verbal attacks to break down resistance. While not subtle, intimidation is effective because it triggers survival responses.

• ✅ Do this: Stay composed, document incidents, and seek support or authority intervention. Standing firm diminishes their perceived power.

Sociopathic Charm & Exploitation

Sociopaths are often superficially charming and persuasive. They study people’s weaknesses and exploit them without remorse. Their manipulation can involve deceit, calculated flattery, or financial exploitation.

• ✅ Do this: Trust actions over words. If someone’s charm feels ‘too good to be true,’ pay attention to inconsistencies in their behavior.

Extortion & Blackmail

Full-blown coercion tactics like extortion and blackmail involve threats of revealing information or causing harm unless demands are met. While not subtle, these methods are manipulative because they trap the victim in fear and secrecy.

• ✅ Do this: Seek immediate legal or law enforcement support. Document everything and refuse to give in, as compliance often leads to further exploitation.

Bribery

Bribery manipulates through offering rewards or favors in exchange for compliance. Unlike healthy negotiation, bribery undermines fairness and ethics, creating a dependency on continued reward.

• ✅ Do this: Recognize when an offer is conditional or manipulative. Uphold integrity, and refuse incentives that compromise your values.

Conclusion

Manipulation is not always easy to spot, and it can take many forms—from subtle jokes to outright blackmail. By strengthening self-awareness, setting clear boundaries, and learning to recognize common tactics, you can protect yourself from being controlled. Remember: true relationships, whether personal or professional, should be built on respect, honesty, and equality—not deception and coercion.

Short Term Rentals made illegal Maui, this will crush many homeowners.

stock here: Mahalo Cuttelfish, she must sleep only 1 hour a night! LOL

stock here: I get tons of obvious AI females pushed at me on Facebook, the worst offender. It is pretty easy to recognize them, for now.

But pretty human females who in the past made living my modeling, are not going to be able to keep that up. AI is better at the fingers now.

stock here: It’s wild out there!

stock here: This is powerful, I do not believe we are in the last days, not yet. My minds eye has trouble coming up with the horror we shall see as technology, medical “skills”, robots, and Satan shall all converge to do much worse than JUST murdering babies. I think that I could devise some scenarios, but there is no current benefit to do so. Plus “they” might use it as a playbook. I think that destruction of God’s gift of life to humans, destruction of the DNA, is a prime goal of the Satanists, ruling over a mutated beast that has lost all spirituality

—————————————————–

2 Timothy 3:1–7 (KJV)

This know also, that in the last days perilous times shall come.

For men shall be lovers of their own selves, covetous, boasters, proud, blasphemers, disobedient to parents, unthankful, unholy,

Without natural affection, trucebreakers, false accusers, incontinent, fierce, despisers of those that are good,

Traitors, heady, highminded, lovers of pleasures more than lovers of God;

Having a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof: from such turn away.

For of this sort are they which creep into houses, and lead captive silly women laden with sins, led away with diverse lusts,

Ever learning, and never able to come to the knowledge of the truth.

Top 10 Most Quoted Verses from 1 & 2 Timothy

2 Timothy 1:7

For God hath not given us the spirit of fear; but of power, and of love, and of a sound mind.

💡 Used in sermons, devotionals, and personal encouragement about courage and faith.

2 Timothy 3:16–17

All scripture is given by inspiration of God, and is profitable for doctrine, for reproof, for correction, for instruction in righteousness: That the man of God may be perfect, thoroughly furnished unto all good works.

💡 Foundational passage about the authority of Scripture.

1 Timothy 6:10

For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows.

💡 Caution against greed, often referenced in financial teachings.

2 Timothy 4:7

I have fought a good fight, I have finished my course, I have kept the faith.

💡 Commonly quoted at funerals or end-of-life reflections.

1 Timothy 4:12

Let no man despise thy youth; but be thou an example of the believers, in word, in conversation, in charity, in spirit, in faith, in purity.

💡 Encouragement to young believers in leadership or ministry.

2 Timothy 2:15

Study to shew thyself approved unto God, a workman that needeth not to be ashamed, rightly dividing the word of truth.

💡 A call to diligent study of God’s Word.

1 Timothy 2:5

For there is one God, and one mediator between God and men, the man Christ Jesus.

💡 Often quoted in discussions about salvation and Christ as sole mediator.

2 Timothy 4:2

Preach the word; be instant in season, out of season; reprove, rebuke, exhort with all longsuffering and doctrine.

💡 Rallying call for preachers and teachers of the Gospel.

1 Timothy 1:15

This is a faithful saying, and worthy of all acceptation, that Christ Jesus came into the world to save sinners; of whom I am chief.

💡 Paul’s humility and Gospel proclamation — often quoted in evangelism.

2 Timothy 2:11–12

It is a faithful saying: For if we be dead with him, we shall also live with him: If we suffer, we shall also reign with him: if we deny him, he also will deny us.

💡 Reminder of endurance and reward in Christ.

stock here: Mandy, the body language expert, covers this excellent story. It appears that not even RFK jr. have presented the information to Trump.

Trump asked why he is getting boooed when he brings up the vaccine. This really is a personality defect, when something so obvious needs to even be explained. Overblown Ego I shall coin the new term for the DSM.

Visit Mandy’s website and drop some comments, she has only 2 but deserves 100.

https://bombardsbodylanguage.com/2025/08/09/body-language-trump-john-rich

And here she is on Rumble

stock thanks A-Eye for the data dig. Citations at bottom.

When the world of sports was put under the pandemic microscope, professional and college athletes in the United States were not just asked, but strongly pressured, to take an injection that was sold as the only way to continue competing. The results were staggering: vaccination rates that shot far higher than the general public, driven not by open medical choice, but by a kind of coerced compliance.

Professional Athletes: Near-Total Uptake Under Pressure

By late 2021, almost every major league in America could report vaccine rates in the 90%+ range. These were not the numbers of free medical consent — these were the numbers of a workforce told, comply or don’t play. Contracts, paychecks, and careers were the leverage.

• NFL: over 93% of players and nearly 100% of staff were vaccinated under league rules [1].
• NBA: roughly 97% of players were reported vaccinated by December 2021 [2].
• MLS: around 95% of players [2].
• NHL: reports of ~99%+ vaccination rates across teams [3].
• WNBA: 99% of players fully vaccinated, among the highest figures in U.S. sports [4].
• MLB: the laggard by comparison, but still over 85% [2].

College Athletes: The Student-Athlete Double Bind

At the college level, the numbers were nearly as high. Power Five programs reported averages above 85%, with many schools pushing toward 90–100% uptake [5]. For young men and women on scholarships, there was no realistic “opt out.” Refusal could mean loss of position, loss of tuition, or the end of a dream.

The EUA Elephant in the Room

All of this took place while the injections widely used in the United States were supplied largely under Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). Pfizer’s Comirnaty received full FDA approval in August 2021, but during the 2021 season and into 2022 much of the domestic supply available to athletes was the EUA-labeled Pfizer‑BioNTech formulation rather than Comirnaty-labeled product. In practice, that left athletes facing a mandate environment with products authorized on an emergency basis, while the fully approved label saw limited or uneven availability in U.S. distribution during that period [6].

The Bigger Picture

Sports have always been about resilience, toughness, and freedom of play. Yet here we witnessed an industry that bent the knee almost entirely. With compliance rates between 85% and 99%, athletes became one of the most vaccinated demographics in America — not necessarily because they lined up willingly, but because the system left them little practical way out.

References

1. NFL. COVID-19 Testing Results and Vaccination Rates (Dec 26, 2021 – Jan 8, 2022). https://www.nfl.com/playerhealthandsafety/resources/press-releases/nfl-covid-19-testing-results-and-vaccination-rates-dec-26-2021-jan-8-2022

2. Vaccine Voices. Professional Athletes Lead the Way in Vaccinations. https://www.vaccinevoices.org/resources/article/professional-athletes-lead-way-vaccinations

3. Rachubinski, A. et al. COVID-19 Vaccination and Athletes. Frontiers in Sports and Active Living (2023). https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10717379/

4. CBS News. WNBA says 99% of players fully vaccinated against COVID-19. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wnba-fully-vaccinated-covid-19/

5. COVID Collaborative. COVIDSafeZones: Power 5 Conferences. https://www.covidcollaborative.us/initiatives/covidsafezones-sports

6. FDA. Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine Letter of Authorization. https://www.fda.gov/media/150386/download

stock here: some big truths in here, worth a read.

https://celiafarber.substack.com/p/a-new-book-brings-into-sharp-clarity?publication_id=257742&post_id=171249100&isFreemail=true&r=1rfqgx&triedRedirect=true

stock here: A-Eye was abhored that I was considering “beta testing” DMSO, it has been on my radar for many years, and I own some, somewhere. Important note: any topical application must have the skin washed big time, and with pure water or distilled water.

Garlic has been used for centuries as food and medicine. DMSO (dimethyl sulfoxide), discovered in the mid-20th century, has been called a ‘miracle solvent’ for its unique ability to carry substances through the skin and cell membranes. What’s fascinating is how these two seemingly unrelated substances overlap in chemistry — both are based on sulfur compounds with carrier-like properties.

The Sulfur Connection

– Garlic contains organosulfur compounds like alliin, allicin, diallyl disulfide, and allyl methyl sulfide.
– DMSO is also a sulfur-based compound, known for its solvent and carrier properties.
– Both garlic and DMSO produce distinct, penetrating odors that can pass through the skin and even show up on the breath.

👉 Fun fact: Crush a clove of garlic, rub it on your foot, and within hours you may smell garlic on your breath.

Figure 1: Simplified comparison of DMSO and Allicin — both sulfur compounds with bioactive properties.

Garlic as Nature’s DMSO?

When garlic is crushed:
– Alliin is converted by the enzyme alliinase into allicin.
– Allicin and its breakdown products are fat- and water-soluble, moving easily in the body.
– Some compounds like allyl methyl sulfide (AMS) are volatile and circulate through blood, lungs, and skin.

This movement mirrors the ‘carrier’ role of DMSO.

Figure 2: Garlic breakdown pathway — alliin converts to allicin, then to multiple sulfur volatiles that circulate in the body.

Anti-inflammatory Action

– DMSO reduces inflammation by scavenging free radicals and improving circulation.
– Garlic’s sulfur compounds lower inflammatory markers and inhibit COX enzymes.
– Both reduce inflammation through sulfur-driven antioxidant actions.

DMSO + Garlic Together?

Some experimental or folk approaches combine DMSO with crushed garlic for topical treatments, based on:
– DMSO carrying garlic’s actives deeper into tissues.
– Garlic’s sulfur compounds enhancing anti-inflammatory effects.

⚠️ Risks: No clinical research supports this combo, and garlic’s allicin can be caustic to skin.

Conclusion

Garlic and DMSO share a biochemical family tree. Both rely on sulfur’s unique ability to cross barriers, bind reactive molecules, and alter inflammation. While garlic is nature’s dietary ally and DMSO remains controversial in human medicine, their overlap offers intriguing insights.

stock here: We have covered SCRIPPS before at nukepro. They are at best “controlled opposition”, misinformation spreaders. Elements of SCRIPPS are far more nefarious than just those. Second video, Doctor states she would have made $1.5M if she went along with injecting her patients with the Spike S Protein Bioweapon

stock here, from substack.

stock here, look at this quote, does that make ANY sense? BS

And this wench of a woman, pretty much knows all the BS that Zelensky had done to destroy his own nation, and a whole generation of boys/men. Only Melinda Gates was strong and smart eenough to leave, in the face of pure evil, when Bill let on to what the plan really way. 3-13-2020, on of the most evil dates on the calendar.

https://nypost.com/2025/08/15/world-news/ukraines-first-lady-demands-return-of-kidnapped-children-as-peace-terms-with-russia-are-considered/?lctg=63fea7b6dc3bd84b030f8749

stock here: Who has read Asimov.

stock here: of course A-Eye doesn’t agree with my assessment “there is no evidence” except the obvious. I’ll put some A-Eye definitions of Inverted Yield Curve below, but bottom lines:

1) This most accurate predictor of recessions may be losing it’s power due to — Gold, Crypto, weird bond market, who knows.

2) Every inversion and recovery has come with a recession, the second last one was a full 24 months.

Cutting rates early and consistently, LIKE EVERY OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD, is the most likely way to avoid or mitigate a recession now. Powell wants to cripple Trump and our Nation. He should be fired immediately, not just sued for construction overruns on the new “Treasury” for private bankers funded by the US citizens.

Here’s the cleanest way to see it—and what history actually says about the “crossing back over.”

The charts you want

• 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread (with recessions shaded) — the Fed’s preferred recession gauge (click “Fullscreen” on the page to explore history back to the 1950s). FRED
• Cleveland Fed’s yield-curve dashboard — live chart of the slope, its GDP growth signal, and the model-implied 12-month recession probability. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

What “inversion” vs. “crossing back over” means

• Inversion: short rates (e.g., 3-month T-bill) exceed long rates (e.g., 10-year).
  • Since 1955, every U.S. recession has been preceded by an inversion; there are a couple of noted “near-miss”/false signals in the 1960s. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
• Crossing back over (disinversion / re-steepening): the spread turns back positive after being negative. Historically that tends to happen when the Fed starts cutting and short rates fall quickly—a “bull steepening.” Reuters

Does the cross-back “invariably” lead to recession? And how fast?

• A widely cited historical takeaway (summarized by Reuters using Bianco Research’s work) is:
  • Average time from first inversion → recession: ~334 days.
  • Average time from disinversion (crossing back over) → recession: ~66 days.
  • Mechanism: the curve typically disinverts when the Fed cuts in response to stress; recessions have followed shortly after in the post-1960 record. Reuters
• The Cleveland Fed and SF Fed back up the broader point that the 10y–3m spread is the most reliable slope to watch for recession risk and that inversions have an excellent long-run track record as a lead signal. Federal Reserve Bank of ClevelandFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Important nuance (so you’re not over-promised by any single indicator)

• Fed researchers emphasize correlation ≠ causation, and structural changes (term premia/QE/global flows) can affect timing. Still, across decades, the 10y–3m curve remains the best single-variable harbinger. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
• Media/Street recaps sometimes say “every disinversion has led to recession.” The spirit of that rule is correct for the modern era because disinversions usually occur as policy eases into a slowdown—but it’s best framed as a very short fuse once the curve meaningfully re-steepens via falling short rates, not as a law of nature. Reuters

---

Quick takeaway you can trade around

1. Watch the 10y–3m spread (FRED link above). When it’s inverted, recession odds 6–18 months out rise. FREDFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
2. If/when the curve crosses back above zero because T-bill yields are dropping (policy cuts / stress), the historical fuse has been ~2 months on average to NBER recession. Reuters

stock here: my machinist tried to explain Crypto Meme Coin to me yesterday. It funny how people can combine a dozen complex ideas and apparently they think they understand the result (maybe they do, but I doubt it).

So I thought this was curious….the site is “Explaining Tech Like You’re Five”.

stock here: I think this is AI narration, which is going to get really irritating.

stock here, I was never sure whether the relative deceleration ( and thus human damage, would be twice as much or 4 times as much)

lets talk specifics of a 6000 lb vehicle hitting 3000 lb vehicle head on. there is conservation of kinetic energy, and conservation of momentum. Also include 2 more scenarios, in which the collision is elastic or inelastic, and make a rational basis for the elastic using modern post 2010 vehicles in USA. What is the deceleration of vehicle A compared to vehicle B (the 3000 pounder)

ChatGPT said:

Great question. I’ll label the 6,000-lb vehicle A (≈2,720 kg) and the 3,000-lb vehicle B (≈1,360 kg). Speeds will be taken as equal and opposite to make things concrete (e.g., both at vv toward each other). You can swap in different speeds if you like.

Core physics (1-D head-on)

• Momentum is conserved in every case.
• Kinetic energy is only conserved in a perfectly elastic collision. Real crashes are largely inelastic (energy goes into crush, heat, sound, etc.).
• During contact the force on both cars is equal and opposite, so their instantaneous accelerations are inversely proportional to mass:
    ∣aA∣:∣aB∣=mB:mA∣aA​∣:∣aB​∣=mB​:mA​.
  With 2:1 mass ratio, B sees ~2× the acceleration/deceleration of A for the same crash pulse.

1) Perfectly inelastic (they lock together)

Final speed (to the right positive):vf=mAv+mB(−v)mA+mB=mA−mBmA+mB v=13vvf​=mA​+mB​mA​v+mB​(−v)​=mA​+mB​mA​−mB​​v=31​v

Change in velocity (ΔvΔv, which sets deceleration severity):∣ΔvA∣=∣vf−v∣=23v,∣ΔvB∣=∣vf−(−v)∣=43v∣ΔvA​∣=∣vf​−v∣=32​v,∣ΔvB​∣=∣vf​−(−v)∣=34​v

So B’s ΔvΔv is 2× A’s (and so is its average/peak decel, for similar pulse duration).

2) Perfectly elastic

Final speeds:vA′=mA−mBmA+mBv+2mBmA+mB(−v)=−13v,vB′=2mAmA+mBv+mB−mAmA+mB(−v)=53vvA′​=mA​+mB​mA​−mB​​v+mA​+mB​2mB​​(−v)=−31​v,vB′​=mA​+mB​2mA​​v+mA​+mB​mB​−mA​​(−v)=35​v∣ΔvA∣=∣−13v−v∣=43v,∣ΔvB∣=∣53v−(−v)∣=83v∣ΔvA​∣=​−31​v−v​=34​v,∣ΔvB​∣=​35​v−(−v)​=38​v

Again B’s ΔvΔv is 2× A’s.

When is “elastic” a rational model?

• Very low-speed bumper taps (parking speeds) where modern post-2010 cars use energy absorbers/bumper beams that spring back with minimal permanent deformation approximate an elastic collision.
• At moderate/high road speeds, modern crumple zones intentionally make the crash highly inelastic to lower peak g’s—so use the inelastic model as the realistic bound.

Worked numbers (so you can gauge g-loads)

Take both cars at 30 mph each (closing speed 60 mph). v=13.41 m/sv=13.41 m/s.

• Inelastic:
  ∣ΔvA∣=8.94 m/s∣ΔvA​∣=8.94 m/s, ∣ΔvB∣=17.88 m/s∣ΔvB​∣=17.88 m/s.
• Elastic:
  ∣ΔvA∣=17.88 m/s∣ΔvA​∣=17.88 m/s, ∣ΔvB∣=35.76 m/s∣ΔvB​∣=35.76 m/s.

If the crash pulse lasts ~0.12 s (typical order of magnitude), average decelerations are:

• Inelastic:
  aA≈75 m/s2≈7.6 gaA​≈75 m/s2≈7.6g,
  aB≈149 m/s2≈15.2 gaB​≈149 m/s2≈15.2g.
• Elastic (not realistic at this speed, but a bound):
  aA≈15.2 g,  aB≈30.4 gaA​≈15.2g,aB​≈30.4g.

Key takeaway: with equal and opposite approach speeds, the lighter 3,000-lb car experiences about twice the ΔvΔv and about twice the deceleration of the 6,000-lb car, regardless of whether the collision is modeled as elastic or perfectly inelastic. Real post-2010 vehicles are engineered so the event is predominantly inelastic (energy absorbed by crush) to reduce the peak g’s for occupants.

Great—let’s pin it down with your numbers.

I’ll call the 6,000-lb car A (~2,720 kg) and the 3,000-lb car B (~1,360 kg). Both at 55 mph (24.587 m/s) toward each other.

What “% inelastic” means

Crash “elasticity” is captured by the coefficient of restitution eee:

• e=0e=0e=0 = perfectly inelastic (lock together).
• e=1e=1e=1 = perfectly elastic (full rebound).
  Real 55 mph car crashes are highly inelastic: e≈0e\approx 0e≈0–0.1.
  “25% inelastic” would mean e=0.75e=0.75e=0.75 (i.e., 75% elastic) — that’s not realistic at road speeds. I’ll show three cases so you can see the sensitivity.

Δv (sets severity) and average decel (depends on pulse time)

For both cars at 55 mph, the change in velocity magnitudes ∣Δv∣|\Delta v|∣Δv∣ are:

| Assumption | ∣ΔvA∣|\Delta v_A|∣ΔvA​∣ (m/s) | ∣ΔvB∣|\Delta v_B|∣ΔvB​∣ (m/s) |
|—|—:|—:|
| e=0e=0e=0 (lock, inelastic) | 16.391 | 32.783 |
| e=0.10e=0.10e=0.10 (slightly elastic, realistic) | 18.031 | 36.061 |
| e=0.75e=0.75e=0.75 (“25% inelastic”, unrealistic) | 28.685 | 57.370 |

Rule that always holds: B’s Δv\Delta vΔv ≈ 2× A’s (because force is equal and masses differ 2:1).

To convert Δv\Delta vΔv to average deceleration, divide by the crash pulse duration:aˉ=ΔvΔt,gˉ=aˉg\bar a = \frac{\Delta v}{\Delta t},\qquad \bar g=\frac{\bar a}{g}aˉ=ΔtΔv​,gˉ​=gaˉ​

Modern belt+airbag “ride-down” stretches the occupant pulse to ~0.15–0.20 s; the vehicle structure pulse is often ~0.10–0.12 s. Here are two useful views:

Using a 0.12 s vehicle pulse (structure)

Assumption	A avg g	B avg g
e=0e=0e=0	13.93 g	27.86 g
e=0.10e=0.10e=0.10	15.32 g	30.64 g
e=0.75e=0.75e=0.75	24.34 g	48.68 g

Using a 0.18 s occupant pulse (belts/airbag ride-down)

Assumption	A avg g	B avg g
e=0e=0	9.29 g	18.57 g
e=0.10e=0.10	10.21 g	20.43 g
e=0.75e=0.75	16.25 g	32.50 g

Bottom line

• At 55–55 head-on, a realistic assumption is highly inelastic (e≈0e≈0 to 0.1), not “25% inelastic.”
• Under realistic e≈0.1e≈0.1 and typical occupant pulse ~0.18 s, the average decel to the passenger is roughly:
  • A (6,000 lb): ~10 g
  • B (3,000 lb): ~20 g
• B experiences about twice the deceleration of A for the same pulse, due to the 2:1 mass ratio.

If you give me a pulse duration you prefer (e.g., data from a specific crash or sled test), I’ll plug it in and return exact g’s for A and B.

ChatGPT said:

Yes — if we’re saying 10 g or 20 g average deceleration, the timeframe is already baked in because that “g” figure came from ΔvΔv divided by the crash pulse duration.

That means we’re talking about an average load over the time the occupant is decelerating (e.g., 0.15–0.20 s for a belted occupant in a modern car). In reality, the peak g’s can be 1.5–2× higher than the average because the decel curve is not perfectly flat — it ramps up and down.

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Human tolerance context

A healthy adult in good shape can tolerate quite different levels depending on direction, restraint, and duration:

Magnitude	Duration	Likely Effects
Up to ~5 g	0.2 s	Very survivable; discomfort, possible belt bruising.
10 g (avg)	0.15–0.20 s	Belt marks, minor contusions, potential mild whiplash; low fracture risk in healthy adults.
20 g (avg)	0.15–0.20 s	High belt force: cracked ribs in some occupants, moderate whiplash, shoulder bruising; increased concussion risk if head strike.
35–45 g (peak)	0.05–0.10 s	Rib and clavicle fractures common; internal organ strain possible; high concussion probability even with airbags.
>50 g (peak)	<0.05 s	Severe thoracic injuries, organ rupture, major fractures; often fatal without exceptional restraint systems.

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Joints and Musculoskeletal Effects

• 10 g avg over ~0.18 s: Ligaments and tendons are unlikely to fail if forces are spread through the restraint system. Most damage comes from secondary impacts (knees to dash, wrists/hands braced on steering wheel).
• 20 g avg over ~0.18 s:
  • Seat belt loads on clavicle/sternum can cause rib or collarbone fractures in older adults.
  • Knee impacts can fracture patella/tibia if unrestrained.
  • Neck sees higher shear force → greater whiplash and cervical strain risk.

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Internal Organ Effects

The body’s soft tissues have inertia too:

• Lungs: At ~20 g avg, belt compression and chest decel can bruise lung tissue (pulmonary contusion), especially in older or smaller-framed occupants.
• Heart & Aorta: Rapid decel causes shear between heart/aorta and surrounding tissues. At peaks above ~35–40 g, risk of aortic rupture sharply rises.
• Brain: Even if skull doesn’t strike anything, acceleration can cause concussion. Risk rises above ~15–20 g average when peaks go higher.

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Bones

• 10 g avg: Low fracture probability except for brittle bones (osteoporosis) or if secondary impacts occur.
• 20 g avg: Moderate fracture risk from restraint forces (esp. ribs, sternum, clavicle), plus extremity fractures from intrusion or flailing.

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Summary for your crash case:

• Vehicle A (10 g avg) → Likely survivable for healthy occupants; minor to moderate restraint injuries.
• Vehicle B (20 g avg) → Survivable in many cases with belts/airbags, but much higher risk of rib/clavicle fractures, organ bruising, and concussion.

now run it for 75MPH, say in the UP, but a glancing blow, head on, but the bumpers overlap by 10% so there will be spinning afterwards and lateral accelerations also. This get tricky I know it, so think long and big

ChatGPT said:

Here’s a first-order run at your 75 mph each glancing, small-overlap (≈10%) head-on.
I’ll call the 6,000-lb vehicle A (≈2,720 kg, ~2.0 m wide) and the 3,000-lb vehicle B (≈1,360 kg, ~1.8 m wide).

Modeling assumptions (kept simple but physics-based)

• Small-overlap ~10% → line of action passes near an outer corner (≈0.9 m from A’s CG, ≈0.81 m from B’s CG), so the impact produces strong yaw (spin) as well as longitudinal decel.
• High-speed crash is highly inelastic: coefficient of restitution e≈0.05e≈0.05.
• No tangential (friction) impulse at the contact (conservative for longitudinal Δv; lateral loads then come mainly from yaw).
• Typical yaw inertias IzIz​ from vehicle size; occupant pulse ≈0.18 s (belt+airbag ride-down).
• All values are order-of-magnitude, not a reconstruction.

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Results

Pre-impact speeds: +75 mph (A), –75 mph (B)

Longitudinal (forward/back) outcomes

• Δv (change in speed)
  • A: ~17.6 m/s (39.5 mph)
  • B: ~35.3 m/s (78.9 mph)
• Average occupant decel (0.18 s pulse)
  • A: ~10 g (peaks commonly 15–20 g)
  • B: ~20 g (peaks commonly 30–40 g)
• Post-impact forward speed
  • A: ~35.6 mph forward
  • B: ~3.9 mph forward

The 2:1 mass ratio still shows up: B takes ~2× the longitudinal Δv and g.

Yaw / spin and lateral loading (from the small-overlap)

• Yaw rate jump right after contact
  • A: ~390 °/s
  • B: ~805 °/s
  • (If nothing else stops them, the first 0.5 s would spin about 195° (A) and ≈400° (B)—in reality tire forces and secondary hits will clamp these.)
• Average lateral g from the initial spin
  (estimated ≈ vpost⋅Δω/2gvpost​⋅Δω/2g)
  • A: ~5–6 g (peaks ≈ 8–12 g)
  • B: ~~1–2 g (peaks ≈ 2–3 g; B’s forward speed is almost killed, so lateral from yaw is smaller unless there’s tangential bite or a secondary hit)
• Resultant average g (vector of long.+lat.)
  • A: ~11–12 g
  • B: ~~20 g

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What this says physically

• The light car (B) still sees about double the frontal loading of A.
• Small-overlap at 75–75 produces violent yaw, especially for B. That shifts some loading into oblique/lateral directions—bad for head/neck and for side-structure contact.
• Real-world injury risk will be dominated by peaks and secondary contacts (guardrail/trees/another car). At these speeds, intrusion becomes likely in the small-overlap side, especially for the lighter car, which can overwhelm the restraint “ride-down” benefit.

cause of this impact direction, would they be more likely or less likely to slip out of the 3 point restraint system, and what would the results then be?

ChatGPT said:

Short answer: with a 10% small-overlap, glancing head-on, occupants are not likely to fully slip out of a modern 3-point belt, but the loading direction does increase the odds of partial “belt escape”—either the shoulder belt sliding off the shoulder or the lap belt riding up (submarining)—especially in the lighter car (B) that sees ~2× the longitudinal g and in the car that spins harder.

Why oblique/small-overlap raises the risk

• Yaw + lateral acceleration rotate the torso across the belt (far-side motion). The belt is optimized for straight-ahead frontal loading; oblique paths let the shoulder belt slip toward the neck or off the shoulder.
• Seat rotation and pelvis ramping during small-overlap can let the lap belt slide above the iliac crests → submarining.
• Load limiters and retractor spool-out (good for chest injury in straight frontal) can increase forward/lateral excursion in an oblique hit.

What happens if partial escape occurs

1. Shoulder belt off the shoulder (far-side):
   • Head swings wide → higher chance of A-pillar, dash, or far-side interior contact despite airbags.
   • More neck shear/bending; higher concussion risk.
   • Torso may still be held by the lap belt → fewer abdominal injuries than submarining, but more head/neck issues.
2. Lap belt ride-up / submarining:
   • Abdominal organ and bowel injuries (“seat-belt syndrome”), possible lumbar spine flexion fractures.
   • If the shoulder belt stays engaged, chest loads continue; if it also slips, head contact risk spikes.
   • In extreme cases with intrusion + rotation, partial out-of-position airbag strike can worsen facial/neck injury.

Why complete ejection is still unlikely

• Post-2010 cars usually have: dual pretensioners (retractor + buckle), anti-submarining seat pans/ramps, knee airbags, side torso + curtain airbags, sometimes center/far-side airbags.
• Doors and glazing plus 3-point restraint make full belt escape/ejection rare unless there’s gross misuse (belt under the arm/behind the back), severe seatback recline, or major intrusion that physically defeats the belt path.

Which car is at greater risk here?

• Vehicle B (3,000 lb): higher longitudinal Δv and g → more forward excursion → more chance the lap belt rides up if posture is poor.
• The vehicle that spins harder (often B in your scenario) also sees more far-side shoulder-belt slip because the torso is flung laterally.

Practical ways to reduce escape risk (everyday use)

• Sit upright (seatback ~100–110°), hips all the way back; do not recline.
• Lap belt low and tight on the pelvic bones; remove bulky coats; avoid belt-routing “under the arm.”
• Adjust D-ring so the shoulder belt crosses mid-shoulder (not near the neck, not off the shoulder).
• Keep head restraint close and level with the top of the head.
• For kids/short adults, use the proper booster/seat so the lap belt stays on the pelvis.
• Ensure airbags/pretensioners aren’t disabled after a prior event; fix any airbag light.

If someone does slip the belt

Expect patterns:

• Off-shoulder: facial lacerations, concussion, cervical sprain/strain; possible contact with pillar/dash/steering rim despite airbags.
• Submarining: abdominal bruising/guarding, intestinal/mesenteric injury, lumbar spine compression/flexion fractures; sometimes hip/pelvic injuries from belt edge.

stock here: even small actions, like getting away from YouTube whenever possible, depowers the bastards that be. Ben throws it down in 3 minutes 49 seconds. Only 139 views, let’s get that up to 2000 for starters. Tell em stock sent you.

And amazingly, that mega quake was only 2 weeks ago!!!