But I think he is overthinking it too.
Who cares what happens next fall?
maybe we get immunity and maybe we dont.
Maybe a vaccine that doesnt make it worse is developed.
Maybe 1918 was exasperated by the World War
Seasonality should be assumed to work in our favor -- Little in Africa, quite a bit in Australia, but they are very dry, again, due to the pattern shifts, due to the Solar Minimum.
Great site to review solar minimum historically.
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle/historical-solar-cycles
-------------------------------------------------------
=---------------------------
·
I should be
qualified to comment on the covid-19 pandemic. I'm a computational/system
biologist working on infectious diseases and have spent five years in a world
class 'pandemic response modelling' unit. In this thread, I will summarise what
I believe I (don't) know. (1/12)
·
After having
spent considerable time thinking how to mitigate and manage this pandemic, and
analysing the available data. I failed to identify the best course of action.
Even worse, I'm not sure there is such a thing as an acceptable solution to the
problem we are facing. (2/12)
·
I believe that
the covid-19 pandemic is the most serious global public health threat humanity
faced since the 1918/19 influenza pandemic. There are major differences between
the two events but I suspect there will also be similarities that may emerge
once we look back. (3/12)
The most
plausible scenario to me is for the covid-19 pandemic to wane in the late
spring (in the Northern hemisphere), and come back as a second wave in the
winter, which I expect could be even worse than what we're facing now. Pic
below is what happened in 1918/19. (4/12)
9:39 AM
·
Replying to
Predictions
from any model are only as good as the data that parametrised it. There are two
major unknowns at this stage. (1) We don't know to what extent covid-19
transmission will be seasonal. (2) We don’t know if covid-19 infection induces
long-lasting immunity. (5/12)
·
Seasonality is
difficult to predict without time-series. Comparison between regions for the
covid-19 pandemic suggests some seasonality, but likely less than for
influenza. This would be roughly in line with other Coronaviridae (common cold
and MERS). (6/12)
·
How long immunity
lasts for following covid-19 infection is the biggest unknown. Comparison with
other Coronaviridae suggests it may be relatively short-lived (i.e. months). If
this were to be confirmed, it would add to the challenge of managing the
pandemic. (7/12)
·
Short-lived
immunisation would defeat both ‘flattening the curve’ and ‘herd immunity’
approaches. Devising an effective strategy would be even more challenging under
low seasonal forcing. It would also considerably complicate effective
vaccination campaigns. (8/12)
·
The covid-19
pandemic is an extremely challenging problem and there are still many unknowns.
There is no simple fix, and poorly thought-out interventions could make the
situation even worse, massively so. (10/12)
·
The covid-19
pandemic is not just an epidemiological problem. It is a ‘Global Health’
problem, that can only be tackled with an integrated and global approach. For
example, there is no such thing as a choice between managing the pandemic vs.
protecting the economy. (11/12)
·
Health and the
economy are closely linked. The correlation between per-capita GDP and health
(life expectancy) is essentially perfect. If the covid-19 pandemic leads to a
global economy collapse, many more lives will be lost than covid-19 would ever
be able to claim. (12/12)
No comments:
Post a Comment
Insightful and Relevant if Irreverent Comments