Hurricane Irma Update and Trend of Less Hurricanes, Not More

Recency Bias, it can affect anyone, even if on guard for it.

Hurricanes are becoming less frequent, although it does appear that larger hurricanes are being
generated, but there really are just a handful of Class 5 hurricanes that have made landfall in the USA. So that data is sparse enough, that I can't put much stock in it.

Nice Site with charts
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/04/28/latest-hurricane-stats-from-noaa/
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My tinfoil hat says this weather hype is related to the powers that be who bought up major weather outlets, and the need to both panic people, and hype "climate change" with the concurrent transfer of wealth and control of energy via the CO2 meme.

We have had a dearth of hurricanes, very stable weather

https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/08/no-major-us-hurricanes-in-11-years-odds-of-that-1-in-2300/ 

But then this apparently scientific and statistical approach, says it could be just chance.   kind of funny their reluctance to try to create a hypothesis, and instead just "conclude".   They must be paid gov climate "scientists" who can't think their way out of a grant bag.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL063652/full

Hmmm......longest "drought" of hurricanes in recorded history, and NASA concludes it is "just luck", because otherwise someone might point the finger at the lie called man made global warming.  


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No Major Hurricane Has Made Landfall In the US In More Than 9 Years https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/major-hurricane-us-landfall-drought-study May 1, 2015 – A new study says that the current drought of major hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. may be due to luck.

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Some nicely compiled hurricane reading

• Bonazzi, A., A. L. Dobbin, J. K. Turner, P. S. Wilson, C. Mitas, and E. Bellone (2014), A simulation approach for estimating hurricane risk over a 5-yr horizon, Weather Clim. Soc., 6, 77–90.
  • CrossRef |
  • Web of Science® Times Cited: 3
• Emanuel, K., S. Ravela, E. Vivant, and C. Risi (2006), A statistical deterministic approach of hurricane risk assessment, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, 299–314.
  • CrossRef |
  • Web of Science® Times Cited: 117 |
  • ADS
• Feller, W. (1968), An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, vol. 1, 3rd ed., Wiley, New York.
• Hall, T. M., and S. Jewson (2007), Statistical modeling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks, Tellus, 59A, 486–498.
  • Wiley Online Library |
  • Web of Science® Times Cited: 46
• Hall, T. M., and E. Yonekura (2013), North American tropical cyclone landfall and SST: A statistical model study, J. Clim., 26, 8422–8439.
  • CrossRef |
  • Web of Science® Times Cited: 8 |
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• Jarvinen, B. R., J. Neumann, and M. A. Davis (1984), A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic basin, 1886–1983, contents, limitations, and uses, NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC 22.
• Meyer, R. J. (2012), Failing to learn from experience about catastrophes: The case for hurricane preparedness, J. Risk. Uncertain, 45, 25–50.
  • CrossRef |
  • Web of Science® Times Cited: 9
• Pielke, R. A., Jr., J. Gratz, C. Landsea, D. Collins, M. A. Saunders, and R. Musulin (2008), Normalized hurricane damage in the United States: 1900–2005, Nat. Hazards Rev., 9, 29–42.
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• Rumpf, J., H. Weindl, P. Hoppe, P. E. Raughe, and V. Schmidt (2007), Stochastic modeling of tropical cyclone tracks, Math. Meth. Oper. Res., 66, 475–490.
  • CrossRef |
  • Web of Science® Times Cited: 18
• Vickery, P. J., J. Lin, P. S. Skerlj, L. A. Twisdale, and K. Huang (2006), HAZUS-MH hurricane model methodology: 1. Hurricane hazard, terrain, and wind load modeling, Nat. Hazards Rev., 7, 82–93.
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