Finally a troll with some MOXy, some game! But it all devolves into lies.
After pointing out a peer reviewed study showing 2000% to 5000% more cancer in kids in Fukushima, the pro nukist responded with the below. Appreciate any debunks that anyone wishes to submit.
http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/2015/10/fukushima-cancer-up-3000-in-children.html
stock out
"… 3,000 kids with thyroid cancer in Fukushima…"
That isn’t “actual” - it is “predicted” … and it isn’t likely, either.
Only 6,000 cases were reported from Chernobyl (3#) which was far worse. Chernobyl vented all the 131Iodine available, and the radioiodine fell over population centres across Europe, while most of Fukushima’s radioiodine was carried over the North Pacific Ocean.
(A) More than ten times the radioactive iodine was emitted by Chernobyl, than Fukushima. (#1, #8, #9, #10, #11)
(B) For the estimated dose to the thyroid, in the small group of highly contaminated areas of both accidents, Fukushima doses are half that of Chernobyl doses … 200 vs 500 (Reference #3) and for the larger population, the thyroid dose from Fukushima is tiny {1 to 10, compared to 200, (#3, #7)}. In Chernobyl, a threshold dose of about 200mGy was determined (#6) … which is right where the estimated dose is, in Japan, for the few “worst case” scenarios. (#3).
(C) The people of the Belarus and Ukraine areas were more deficient in iodine, thus their thyroids absorbed the radioiodine more readily than the people of Japan (whose diet is not generally deficient in iodine). (#4, #5)
(D) Authorities were immediately notified of the Fukushima accident and nearby populations were evacuated and iodine tablets distributed before significant venting occurred. (#3, #4, #5)
(E) Milk from the contaminated areas was consumed, around Chernobyl, and milk from anywhere near Fukushima was not consumed. (#3, #5)
(F) "Intense screening" - really, fear of radiation, causes action (like thyroid surgery) when, in the absence of fear, the doctors might say, "Yes, it is a lump. Let's check up on it in six months to a year and see how it is doing" (Reference #2, J Orient 2014)
References:
#1: "The source terms for 131I, … from the [Fukushima Nuclear Accident] were about 60-390 PBq… which was about 10% of that of [Chernobyl Nuclear Accident] and less than 1% of global fallout.”
Wuhui Lin, et al. 2015 "Radioactivity impacts of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident on the atmosphere.” Atmospheric Environment
http://www.researchgate.net/pr...
#2: ”The only cancer reportedly observed in excess [after the 1986 Chernobyl accident] is thyroid. However, Jaworowski contends that this is probably an artifact of intense screening, as [hidden, undiagnosed] thyroid cancer is extremely common. 33”
Orient, J. 2014 "Fukushima and reflections on radiation as a terror weapon.” Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons
http://www.jpands.org/vol19no2...
#3: "…Exposure to radioactive iodine, mainly in food, led to increased thyroid cancer in children living in the [Chernobyl-]affected area. …An increased level of thyroid cancer among children was one of the significant radiation-induced health impacts from the Chernobyl NPP accident. The contamination of milk with 131I, for which prompt countermeasures were lacking, resulted in large doses to the thyroids of the public. Over 6000 cases of thyroid cancer have been reported, with 15 deaths reported by 2005. … The average thyroid dose to evacuees was about 500 milligray (mGy) (UNSCEAR 2008). For thyroid dose, 1 mGy is about the same as an equivalent dose of 1 mSv. The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated thyroid doses from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP accident to range from 1 to 10 mSv in most of Japan, and from 100 to 200 mSv (equivalent dose) in the most affected area of the Fukushima prefecture (WHO 2012). These doses are significantly lower than those seen following the Chernobyl NPP accident.”
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/15...
#4: ”222 … The occurrence of a large number of radiation-induced thyroid cancers in Fukushima Prefecture —such as occurred after the Chernobyl accident—can be discounted, because absorbed doses to the thyroid after the FDNPS accident were substantially lower than those after the Chernobyl accident”
http://www.unscear.org/docs/re...
#5: ”[Chernobyl] Thyroid doses exceeding 2 Gy were observed almost exclusively in younger children aged less than 4 years [30] and they usually were higher in the residents of rural than in urban areas with similar contamination level [29]. It is worth noting that organized administration of prophylactic or thyroid-blocking doses of stable iodine was not common.” … ”Importantly, a strong modifying effect of iodine deficiency was observed: relative risk for developing cancer was 3.2 in iodine deficient areas … The major route of 131I ingestion by residents [near Chernobyl] was its incorporation into the food chains of pastured cattle, mostly cows, and consumption of fresh milk as well as from vegetables and fruits grown in open soil … excess relative risk estimate of 5.25 per 1 Gy. ”
Saenko, V., et al. 2011 "The Chernobyl accident and its consequences.” Clinical Oncology
http://naosite.lb.nagasaki-u.a...
#6: ”… the Chernobyl accident, where thyroid doses ranged up to 1 Sv (123). The increase in thyroid cancer among young children is correlated with dose (124), and a threshold at 200 mSv is compatible with data (125).”
Tubiana, Maurice, et al. 2009 "The Linear No-Threshold Relationship Is Inconsistent with Radiation Biologic and Experimental Data 1.” Radiology
http://health.phys.iit.edu/arc...
#7: "The average annual absorbed dose to the thyroid from naturally occurring sources of radiation is typically of the order of 1 mGy.”
http://www.unscear.org/docs/re...
#8: ”... the total amount of radionuclides released to the environment [from Fukushima] was in the range of 100 - 500 petabecquerels (PBq) for iodine-131 (I131) and 6 - 20 PBq for cesium-137 (Cs137) [5]”
Nishimura, Takeshi, Harutaka Hoshi, and Akitoshi Hotta 2015. "Current research and development activities on fission products and hydrogen risk after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station.” Nuclear Engineering and Technology
http://www.kns.org/jknsfile/v4...
#9: "…the 131I … released by the Chernobyl accident was only about 0.1% of that released by the weapon tests.”
Gudiksen, P. H., T. F. Harvey, and R. Langen 1989. "Chernobyl source term, atmospheric dispersion, and dose estimation.” Health Physics
http://www.osti.gov/scitech/bi...
#10: ”Maximum 131-I activities in rain resulting from Fukushima were a factor of 10 lower for rainwater and a factor of 40-80 lower for seaweed compared to similar measurements made following the Chernobyl disaster in 1986.”
”Depending on location, activities of 131-I in rain peaked between March 20-24 and were observed to decrease to background levels in the first week of April.”
http://fukushimainform.ca/2014...
#11: "Iodine-131 in tap water exhibited high levels shortly after the accident in several affected prefectures, but no exceedances of the limit were observed after March 2011.”
Merz, Stefan, Katsumi Shozugawa, and Georg Steinhauser 2015. "Analysis of Japanese Radionuclide Monitoring Data of Food Before and After the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.” Environmental Science & Technology
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pm...
After pointing out a peer reviewed study showing 2000% to 5000% more cancer in kids in Fukushima, the pro nukist responded with the below. Appreciate any debunks that anyone wishes to submit.
http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/2015/10/fukushima-cancer-up-3000-in-children.html
stock out
"… 3,000 kids with thyroid cancer in Fukushima…"
That isn’t “actual” - it is “predicted” … and it isn’t likely, either.
Only 6,000 cases were reported from Chernobyl (3#) which was far worse. Chernobyl vented all the 131Iodine available, and the radioiodine fell over population centres across Europe, while most of Fukushima’s radioiodine was carried over the North Pacific Ocean.
(A) More than ten times the radioactive iodine was emitted by Chernobyl, than Fukushima. (#1, #8, #9, #10, #11)
(B) For the estimated dose to the thyroid, in the small group of highly contaminated areas of both accidents, Fukushima doses are half that of Chernobyl doses … 200 vs 500 (Reference #3) and for the larger population, the thyroid dose from Fukushima is tiny {1 to 10, compared to 200, (#3, #7)}. In Chernobyl, a threshold dose of about 200mGy was determined (#6) … which is right where the estimated dose is, in Japan, for the few “worst case” scenarios. (#3).
(C) The people of the Belarus and Ukraine areas were more deficient in iodine, thus their thyroids absorbed the radioiodine more readily than the people of Japan (whose diet is not generally deficient in iodine). (#4, #5)
(D) Authorities were immediately notified of the Fukushima accident and nearby populations were evacuated and iodine tablets distributed before significant venting occurred. (#3, #4, #5)
(E) Milk from the contaminated areas was consumed, around Chernobyl, and milk from anywhere near Fukushima was not consumed. (#3, #5)
(F) "Intense screening" - really, fear of radiation, causes action (like thyroid surgery) when, in the absence of fear, the doctors might say, "Yes, it is a lump. Let's check up on it in six months to a year and see how it is doing" (Reference #2, J Orient 2014)
References:
#1: "The source terms for 131I, … from the [Fukushima Nuclear Accident] were about 60-390 PBq… which was about 10% of that of [Chernobyl Nuclear Accident] and less than 1% of global fallout.”
Wuhui Lin, et al. 2015 "Radioactivity impacts of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident on the atmosphere.” Atmospheric Environment
http://www.researchgate.net/pr...
#2: ”The only cancer reportedly observed in excess [after the 1986 Chernobyl accident] is thyroid. However, Jaworowski contends that this is probably an artifact of intense screening, as [hidden, undiagnosed] thyroid cancer is extremely common. 33”
Orient, J. 2014 "Fukushima and reflections on radiation as a terror weapon.” Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons
http://www.jpands.org/vol19no2...
#3: "…Exposure to radioactive iodine, mainly in food, led to increased thyroid cancer in children living in the [Chernobyl-]affected area. …An increased level of thyroid cancer among children was one of the significant radiation-induced health impacts from the Chernobyl NPP accident. The contamination of milk with 131I, for which prompt countermeasures were lacking, resulted in large doses to the thyroids of the public. Over 6000 cases of thyroid cancer have been reported, with 15 deaths reported by 2005. … The average thyroid dose to evacuees was about 500 milligray (mGy) (UNSCEAR 2008). For thyroid dose, 1 mGy is about the same as an equivalent dose of 1 mSv. The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated thyroid doses from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP accident to range from 1 to 10 mSv in most of Japan, and from 100 to 200 mSv (equivalent dose) in the most affected area of the Fukushima prefecture (WHO 2012). These doses are significantly lower than those seen following the Chernobyl NPP accident.”
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/15...
#4: ”222 … The occurrence of a large number of radiation-induced thyroid cancers in Fukushima Prefecture —such as occurred after the Chernobyl accident—can be discounted, because absorbed doses to the thyroid after the FDNPS accident were substantially lower than those after the Chernobyl accident”
http://www.unscear.org/docs/re...
#5: ”[Chernobyl] Thyroid doses exceeding 2 Gy were observed almost exclusively in younger children aged less than 4 years [30] and they usually were higher in the residents of rural than in urban areas with similar contamination level [29]. It is worth noting that organized administration of prophylactic or thyroid-blocking doses of stable iodine was not common.” … ”Importantly, a strong modifying effect of iodine deficiency was observed: relative risk for developing cancer was 3.2 in iodine deficient areas … The major route of 131I ingestion by residents [near Chernobyl] was its incorporation into the food chains of pastured cattle, mostly cows, and consumption of fresh milk as well as from vegetables and fruits grown in open soil … excess relative risk estimate of 5.25 per 1 Gy. ”
Saenko, V., et al. 2011 "The Chernobyl accident and its consequences.” Clinical Oncology
http://naosite.lb.nagasaki-u.a...
#6: ”… the Chernobyl accident, where thyroid doses ranged up to 1 Sv (123). The increase in thyroid cancer among young children is correlated with dose (124), and a threshold at 200 mSv is compatible with data (125).”
Tubiana, Maurice, et al. 2009 "The Linear No-Threshold Relationship Is Inconsistent with Radiation Biologic and Experimental Data 1.” Radiology
http://health.phys.iit.edu/arc...
#7: "The average annual absorbed dose to the thyroid from naturally occurring sources of radiation is typically of the order of 1 mGy.”
http://www.unscear.org/docs/re...
#8: ”... the total amount of radionuclides released to the environment [from Fukushima] was in the range of 100 - 500 petabecquerels (PBq) for iodine-131 (I131) and 6 - 20 PBq for cesium-137 (Cs137) [5]”
Nishimura, Takeshi, Harutaka Hoshi, and Akitoshi Hotta 2015. "Current research and development activities on fission products and hydrogen risk after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station.” Nuclear Engineering and Technology
http://www.kns.org/jknsfile/v4...
#9: "…the 131I … released by the Chernobyl accident was only about 0.1% of that released by the weapon tests.”
Gudiksen, P. H., T. F. Harvey, and R. Langen 1989. "Chernobyl source term, atmospheric dispersion, and dose estimation.” Health Physics
http://www.osti.gov/scitech/bi...
#10: ”Maximum 131-I activities in rain resulting from Fukushima were a factor of 10 lower for rainwater and a factor of 40-80 lower for seaweed compared to similar measurements made following the Chernobyl disaster in 1986.”
”Depending on location, activities of 131-I in rain peaked between March 20-24 and were observed to decrease to background levels in the first week of April.”
http://fukushimainform.ca/2014...
#11: "Iodine-131 in tap water exhibited high levels shortly after the accident in several affected prefectures, but no exceedances of the limit were observed after March 2011.”
Merz, Stefan, Katsumi Shozugawa, and Georg Steinhauser 2015. "Analysis of Japanese Radionuclide Monitoring Data of Food Before and After the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.” Environmental Science & Technology
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pm...
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