"Interventions" In The Spanish Flu, Ending The Lockdown Quickly Had the Best Outcomes

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/208354

Above article a good one.   Skim it.

The graphs per city were attributed to that article, but they are not from there.    I got them from Nat Geo, who references them back to that article.    But even that article and it's data sources do not have the data, much less the charts.

I FOUND IT!
http://chm.med.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2020/04/JAMA-NPI-Paper-Supplemental-Figures.ppt

I did a whole new article as this one was getting long in the tooth.   With the charts of the most successful cities...its from the Power Point Link above.

https://www.nukepro.net/2020/05/success-stories-smartest-cities-from.html

Then Nat Geo, and the charts apparently created by Nat Geo, draw incorrect conclusions.  

The correct conclusion, which escaped me until my third visit to the material, is simply this:

The cities with the least deaths per 100,000 were the one that reacted quickly to close schools and to ban public gatherings.   They did not close businesses!!!!

And with 1 single exception of Columbus Ohio, which had the fourth lowest rate of death at 312 /100k, who reacted fairly quickly and kept measures in place for 12 or 13 weeks.
 All the other Winning Cities did this:

1) Reacted fairly quickly
2) Terminated lockdown fairly quickly
3) Either didn't need a 2nd lockdown, or reacted with a second lockdown

Nat Geo Source
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/

Incorrect conclusion.   The length of the lockdown was not a factor (only in Columbus).    A decent fast start AND a quick termination of lockdown was what made the winners!

Slides 1-4.  Scatterplots of public health response time (PHRT) by time to first mortality peak, PHRT by magnitude of first mortality peak, PHRT by excess P&I mortality rate, and total NPI-days by excess P&I mortality rate for 43 U S cities, September 8, 1918-February 22, 1919.  The four cities represented by triangles are discussed further in the text.  The two cities represented by circles are outliers chosen to demonstrate that the associations shown are not perfect.

      Slide 1.  PHRT by time to first mortality peak.

      Slide 2.  PHRT by magnitude of first mortality peak.

      Slide 3.  PHRT by excess P&I mortality rate.

      Slide 4.  Total NPI-days by excess P&I mortality rate.

Slide 5.  Aggregate weekly excess death rates for 43 U S cities by region (East, Midwest, West), September 8, 1918-February 22, 1919.

Slides 6-48.  Weekly excess death rates, NPIs implemented and when, date of first case, date first NPI implemented, date of expected effect of first NPI on mortality (10 days after first NPI implemented), and date excess death rate first exceeds twice the baseline death rate for 43 U S cities, September 8, 1918-February 22, 1919.

      Slide 6.  Albany, NY

      Slide 7.  Baltimore, MD

      Slide 8.  Birmingham, AL

      Slide 9.  Boston, MA

      Slide 10.  Buffalo, NY

      Slide 11.  Cambridge, MA

      Slide 12.  Chicago, IL

      Slide 13.  Cincinnati, OH

      Slide 14.  Cleveland, OH

      Slide 15.  Columbus, OH

      Slide 16.  Dayton, OH

      Slide 17.  Denver, CO

      Slide 18.  Fall River, MA

      Slide 19.  Grand Rapids, MI

      Slide 20.  Indianapolis, IN

      Slide 21.  Kansas City, MO

      Slide 22.  Los Angeles, CA

      Slide 23.  Louisville, KY

      Slide 24.  Lowell, MA

      Slide 25.  Milwaukee, WI

      Slide 26.  Minneapolis, MN

      Slide 27.  Nashville, TN

      Slide 28.  New Haven, CT

      Slide 29.  New Orleans, LA

      Slide 30.  New York, NY

      Slide 31.  Newark, NJ

      Slide 32.  Oakland, CA

      Slide 33.  Omaha, NB

      Slide 34.  Philadelphia, PA

      Slide 35.  Pittsburgh, PA

      Slide 36.  Portland, OR

      Slide 37.  Providence, RI

      Slide 38.  Richmond, VA

      Slide 39.  Rochester, NY

      Slide 40.  St. Louis, MO

      Slide 41.  St. Paul, MN

      Slide 42.  San Francisco, CA

      Slide 43.  Seattle, WA

      Slide 44.  Spokane, WA

      Slide 45.  Syracuse, NY

      Slide 46.  Toledo, OH

      Slide 47.  Washington, DC

      Slide 48.  Worcester, MA

Slides 49-51.  Scatterplots of total excess P&I mortality comparing successive waves of the pandemic, Spring, 1918: January, 1918 - April, 1918; Fall, 1918: September, 1918 - December, 1918; Winter, 1919: January, 1919 - April, 1919; and Winter, 1920: January, 1920 - April, 1920 for 43 U S study cities.

      Slide 49.  Spring, 1918 by Fall, 1918.

      Slide 50.  Fall, 1918 by Winter, 1919.

      Slide 51.  Winter, 1919 by Winter, 1920.

Slides 52-58. Scatterplots of total excess P&I mortality by population, population density, gender distribution, percentage of population under 5 years, 15 to 40 years, and over 65 years of age for 43 U S cities, September 8, 1918 - February 22, 1919.

      Slide 52.  Total excess P&I mortality by population.

      Slide 53.  Total excess P&I mortality by population density.

      Slide 54.  Total excess P&I mortality by percentage male.

      Slide 55.  Total excess P&I mortality by percentage under age 5 years.

      Slide 56.  Total excess P&I mortality by percentage age 15 to 40 years.

      Slide 57.  Total excess P&I mortality by percentage over age 65 years.

      Slide 58.  Total excess P&I mortality by total percentage under age 5 years, 15 to 40 years, and over 65 years.