Italy Pandemic Model Working Perfectly -- How Come Some Guy In His Basement Can Outperform the Entire Medical System?

Why indeed.

Italy is showing some "spikey" behaviour similar to bad actor states in the USA.   But like the USA, inflating data one day to create a scary spike, requires lower numbers in the future.   And it is getting much harder to "harvest" deaths from Flu and Pneumonia since the regular season is quickly going away.

I added these numbers by hand into the old model.   How do you like the model?