Welcome to the Tet Offensive phase of The
War on Covid
Yesterday
Naftali Bennett, the prime minister of Israel, issued an stark (if
unintentionally) revealing warning to his country about the failure of the
mRNA vaccines.
As you
know if you are a regular reader, Israel is the canary in the world’s
coalmine for Covid and the vaccines. It vaccinated more of its citizens with
the Pfizer shot more quickly than almost anywhere else.
This
spring, Israel’s experience seemed to validate the success of the vaccines.
Now it’s a cautionary tale, as I explained in a Substack almost two weeks ago
(time flies when nations are falling).
Unfortunately
since then the data has gotten much worse.
The
number of serious cases has risen almost 30-fold since late June. Roughly 60
percent of those people are fully vaccinated.
Yet the
vaccine fanatics refuse to admit the depth of Israeli the crisis. Instead
they continue to point out that per-person rates of serious illness
are higher in the unvaccinated elderly.
They are
correct, but they’re leaving out a key fact. Over 90 percent of Israelis over
70 have been vaccinated, suggesting that many of the remainder have not
received vaccinations because they are too frail to do so. (One datapoint
supporting this fact: Vaccination rates actually peak among people in their
seventies and then decline as people get older, even though the oldest people
are at the highest risk and should be the most likely to be vaccinated.)
Thus the
relative numbers matter much less than the absolute numbers and trend. And
the absolute trend is awful.
—
Which
brings us to what Naftali Bennett tweeted yesterday.
“Non-immunization
for a third time leaves senior citizens in mortal danger. Get vaccinated
now.”
Mortal danger?
Get vaccinated now?
These
older Israelis are already vaccinated. Yet as Israel’s Covid wards, fill
their prime minister is now more or less admitting that they are unprotected
against the virus.
A major
preprint out of Japan from July 30 explains why.
The
researchers examined Pfizer vaccine-generated antibodies in more than 200
people and found that on average they fell to undetectable levels about 6.5
months after the first shot - or roughly five after
they reach full vaccination.
In
other words, the Israel failure is happening right on schedule. Vaccine
protection lasts months, not years. (Four months, give or take, since
protection is limited the first month and likely negative the first week or
two.)
Thus
Bennett’s desperate call for a third shot. But although the booster does seem
to produce new antibodies, neither the Israeli government nor Pfizer nor
anyone else can know whether it will reduce infections or deaths, either
temporarily or permanently. NO ONE HAS CONDUCTED ANY CLINICAL TRIALS TO
DETECT THESE ENDPOINTS OR TO EXAMINE THIRD SHOT SIDE-EFFECTS IN ANY DETAIL.
(I looked at this issue last week in a different Substack.)
—
For much
of 1967, in the face of rising American discontent, the United States
government insisted it was making progress in beating back the North
Vietnamese Army and Viet Cong.
Then, in
late January 1968, the VC and North Vietnamese launched a massive offensive
that coincided with the lunar new year (which in Vietnamese is called “Tet”).
All over South Vietnam, including in the capital of Saigon, American and
South Vietnamese troops came under attack.
Many
military historians have made the point that Tet was a failure for the
attackers. The American military was not overrun.
But it didn’t matter. The scale of the offensive put the lie
to the Pentagon’s insistence that it was near victory. Tet made clear that
even with a force of 500,000 American soldiers and a massive airpower
advantage, the United States was further from pacifying Vietnam than it had
been years before.
The war
was over.
But the
killing wasn’t. The American government couldn’t admit the truth that was
obvious to anyone paying attention. Even when it did, it needed years more to
extricate itself. From 1969 through 1971, more than 20,000 Americans and many
more Vietnamese died in a fight everyone could see was pointless.
Covid
has now reached its Tet moment. Anyone looking hard at the data can see the
stark limits of the vaccines. Unfortunately, that group includes very few
journalists. Almost no one yesterday pointed out what Bennett was really
saying.
And of
course our governments appear committed to this course and cannot admit the
truth.
What’s going to make them? And how
long will it take?
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