The war on solar continues, spearheading by utlities that have seen how sucessful the PV program in Hawaii has been, leaving the local utility, Hawaiian Electric, completely unprepared to maintain relevance.
I'll give you the answers first, then the article.
2) Solar integrated roof shingles do not make sense. Roofs are roofs and PV is PV. They perform awesome separately. Its a straw man
3) Once you have your contract (NEM) with the utility in place, you usually have 20 years of certainty
4) Who cares, you are going to do it in one year and so you have certainty. The future doesn't affect your project except possibly the SRECs which are small, 5 to 30 $ per year per kW, so on 4kw That $20. Is not even worth talking about, even if it is $120
Get it now before the war on solar by the nuclear utilities has more negative impact.
http://tdworld.com/generation-renewables/four-reasons-why-i-may-never-install-solar-panels-my-roof
My mentor and cohort at Grid
Optimization Paul Mauldin wrote a thought-provoking article on
residential solar about 18 months ago entitled
“5 Reasons Why I Don’t Have Solar Panels on My Roof…Yet.”
Due to overwhelming interest in this piece, Grid Op decided to do an
update. My research led me to the above conclusion and title. Some of
my reasons outlined below may not be what you expect or may not be the
correct conclusion for your situation.
1. Not the Right Location
The
first rule when buying real estate, location-location-location, may be
the most important factor when determining the value proposition for a
residential solar installation. It is a lot more complex than simply
deciding if you have good southern exposure or the home owner’s
association allows solar panels. The solar radiation of your location
determines the amount of usable solar energy, measured in KWh/m
2/day,
which you receive. While my home in Pennsylvania felt like Death
Valley this summer, the solar resource is not that good. NREL has tons
of material to help one determine their usable solar energy (see
http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html).
Even though solar panel costs have dropped by about 15% since Paul
wrote his article, I would still be facing a levelized solar energy
price of $0.28/KWh based on a fairly aggressive residential installed
solar panel cost of $3.50/ W. That raises the second location issue of
prevailing power prices. The average cost of power in my area is just
below the national average of $0.12/KWh. Even with panels priced at
$1.50/W, I could not reach grid parity in my area. Note that the U.S.
DOE SunShot Initiative has a goal of $1.00/W by 2020 (for utility-scale
applications), and some areas of the country with a much better solar
resource may already be at grid parity.
2. There May be Better Options
Actually,
I can think of two. Let me start with the residential solar theme.
Some folks with a good solar resource are put off by the aesthetics of
solar panels on their home or have local zoning restrictions that don’t
allow them. Enter the growing trend of building integrated
photovoltaics (BIPV). The best examples are solar shingles and tiles.
These materials attach directly to the roof and serve a dual
purpose-roofing material and solar production. While these products are
still about 10% to 20% more expensive than the equivalent capacity in
solar panels, the fact that they are also a substitute for that
replacement roof which will inevitably be needed helps their case.
Further, since they are not elevated from the roof and are similar in
weight to roofing material, extra footings, rafter reinforcement and
snow removal issues, all seen with some panel installations, are not as
much of an issue.
However, before I
will be sold on the solar single roof, I would want to see more
information on heat dissipation and O&M cost. Also, in some
locations where the tilt of the solar collector is very important, solar
roofing may be at a disadvantage. Last, while all the wiring is neatly
tucked under and integrated into the shingles, I would want to know
faulty shingles or tiles could be easily replaced without major
disruption. The DOW PowerHouse Solar System 2 shingle system, a second
generation product, actually incorporated replaceable panels, thereby
addressing this issue. Unfortunately, DOW Solar just announced it is
discontinuing this business segment.
The
second potentially better option than my own personal solar facility
could very well be participation in a community solar project.
Community solar projects have taken off around the country with the
decline in panel costs. Companies like First Solar, Inc. are seeing
record bookings of new utility-scale community projects. Community solar
has a number of advantages over the personal rooftop alternative,
including economies of scale, which helps lower the impact of
development, transaction and building costs. Community-scale systems
are more likely to be able to economically support enhancements like one
and two axis tracking systems which, depending on location, can
increase PV generation an astounding 12% to 45% over fixed mount PV
systems. And, importantly, they shift the risk of technology
improvements, operations and maintenance to experts. Finally, one might
argue community solar is more socially acceptable since renters,
non-profit organizations and others who cannot afford to purchase their
own system can still avail themselves to solar energy. Community
projects may also be tied to a microgrid that also services essential
services such as police, fire, hospital or university needs.
3. Regulatory Uncertainty
This
may be the toughest nut to crack. As rooftop solar and other forms of
distributed energy take off in areas around the country, there are more
and more regulatory proceedings focused on changing the rules for those
deciding to self-generate. The changes come in the form of eliminating
or altering the terms for net energy metering and new or increased fixed
and demand charges. The N. C. Clean Energy Technology Center tracks
policy change proposals in a report entitled
“50 States of Solar.”
In the second quarter of 2016, 79 of the 121 policy actions raised
dealt with net metering or fixed charges for distributed PV.
Utilities
argue that significant penetration of distributed PV erodes revenues
and under traditional ratemaking this shifts costs to non-participating
customers. PV advocates argue that there are many cross-subsidies
inherent in ratemaking design and distributed generation (DG) should not
be singled out. Potentially moving these arguments in a constructive
direction, proceedings in several jurisdictions are focusing on value of
solar investigations with the goal of quantifying all of the benefits
and costs of DG.
Unfortunately, in
the meantime, the regulatory uncertainty makes it less than prudent to
consider a long-term investment like rooftop solar without a better
understanding of how it will affect one’s electric bill.
4. The Boom-Bust Volatility of Federal and State Tax Credits and Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SRECs)
The
federal tax credit for renewable energy has long created a roller
coaster effect in the development of renewable energy projects. Each
time the credit is about to expire there is a rush in development with
accompanying stress and price pressure all along the implementation
chain. This makes it difficult for developers, manufacturers and
utilities to create and maintain a reasonable and predictable business
plan. The impacts are most apparent in utility-scale renewable energy
projects.
States that adopted solar
energy incentives are causing additional market pressures. Some states
have implemented generous incentives for residential solar and
subsequently had to cap or curtail the incentives due to
over-subscription. The boom-bust development of solar projects also has
a huge impact on states with renewable energy credit programs. When
supply is limited, the price of SRECs skyrocket. This is bad for
utilities that are obligated to purchase them. High credit values lead
to a bubble in development, and then the value of the credits tank.
Residential solar project owners may be severely impacted if the
economics of their project was dependent on the SREC income stream.
Some
might argue that tax and renewable energy credit incentives are overall
beneficial, but if one is developing a project where the solar resource
is not that great (which is the logical place for incentives to be
used), one needs to know they can be counted on until the cost of the
project is amortized. That certainty may not exist in many places for
the amortization of a significant rooftop solar project.
Conclusion
So
there you have my logic for saying I may never install solar panels on
my roof. I truly appreciate the value of renewable energy, but I
definitely believe there are better alternatives for harvesting the
benefits of renewable energy in my region of the country. In other
areas, solar may be near or at grid parity, but one has to consider all
the factors that make it so to be sure the equation works for the 10 or
so years it might take to recover one’s investment. What is your view?
Anyone who is interested in being prepared, should think about owning a Geiger Counter and knowing how to use it. And here is one reason--Obama has arranged to FLY nuclear waste into our airspace. 
