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The Science of Lockdown, Masks and Vaccines Crumbles
By Bill Sardi
Emerging Science Is Slowly Talking Modern Medicine Out Of Lockdowns, Mask Wearing And A Vaccine
Herd immunity not allowed
The primary thrust of public health directives has been to keep the population fearful and therefore compliant and vulnerable to infection and in desperate need of a vaccine. In the absence of a vaccine people need to be exposed and infected to activate sufficient antibodies to produce long-term immunity That is what is called herd immunity.
But by socially distancing and wearing masks, any herd immunity would theoretically be slowed, or delayed indefinitely. Health authorities are talking out of two sides of their mouth. It is possible there will never be a safe and effective coronavirus vaccine. Herd immunity is plan B, but lockdowns and face-masks run counter to the development of herd immunity.
Lockdowns aren't intended to save lives
Johan Giesecke, professor emeritus at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm says a lockdown only pushes severe cases and deaths into the future, it will not prevent them.
Vaccine efficacy
Even should a vaccine be licensed, if a vaccine is to have efficacy (ability to protect against infection and symptoms of fever, shortness of breath, dry cough, or prevent hospitalization and death) - - at least 70% of a population has to be vaccinated to prevent an emerging epidemic and an 80% immunization rate achieved to extinguish an ongoing epidemic (complete return to normal)
The Food & Drug Administration has set the bar low for licensure of a vaccine. A vaccine will only need to prevent or decrease severity of the COVID-19 coronavirus by at least 50 percent, said the FDA before a Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committee. No mention of saving lives.
The chart below displays the (in)effectiveness of flu vaccines over recent years Efficacy ranges from 10% to 60% depending on the year. Will any COVID-19 vaccine fare better?
U.S Flu Vaccine Effectieness by Flu Year (October - February)Source: Wikipedia |
|||||
|
Year |
Effective |
Year |
Effective |
Year |
Effective |
|
2004 |
10% |
2009 |
56% |
2014 |
19% |
|
2005 |
21% |
2010 |
60% |
2015 |
48% |
|
2006 |
52% |
2011 |
47% |
2016 |
40% |
|
2007 |
37% |
2012 |
49% |
2017 |
38% |
|
2008 |
41% |
2013 |
52% |
2018 |
29% |
But that performance mark should be confined to 70% to 80% of high-risk individuals, not the masses of healthy people.
Did Sweden "Fail Completely?"
Sweden is a country whose approach to protect the public from COVID-19 was to concentrate preventive measures among the most vulnerable nursing home patients and rely on herd immunity to protect remaining Swedes.
Critics in Germany say Swedish health authorities "failed completely" because the COVID-19 death rate was 1072-times greater in Sweden (2679 deaths/ 10 million inhabitants) compared to Taiwan (just 6 deaths per 24 million inhabitants) that enforced strict measures to prevent the spread of the disease.
But as Dr. Giesecke instructs, strict prevention measures are not intended to do anything but keep hospital intensive care units from being over-run with patients (flatten the curve), not save lives. There must be some other hidden factors involved to explain the widely different death rates between Sweden and Taiwan.
Taiwan has inexplicable low COVID-19 death rate
Taiwan is 81 miles off the coast of mainland China and was expected to have the second highest number of cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to its proximity to and number of flights between China. The country has 23 million citizens of which 850,000 reside in and 404,000 work in China. In 2019, 2.71 million visitors from the mainland traveled to Taiwan. Taiwan would be expected to have a high infection and mortality rate given its proximity to China where the COVID-19 pandemic began.
A financial factor goes unmentioned. Taiwan does not reimburse hospitals more for a COVID-19 diagnosis as do other countries.
Another Asian country, Thailand, also reports a very low COVID-19 death rate.
As of September 14, 2020 only 58 COVID-19 related deaths have been reported in Thailand out of a population of 69 million. There have only been 3000 cases reported and all new cases initially came from overseas. There were actually more (2551) deaths from suicide as a result of livelihoods that were destroyed in Thailand.
Economist Martin Armstrong reports Thailand, like Taiwan, is a country that does not pay hospitals if the patient tests positive for COVID-19.
SARS outbreak of 2003
SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) produced a small epidemic throughout Asia in 2003. This may explain why Taiwan and Thailand have such low COVID-19 death rates.
The 2003 outbreak of SARS-CoV (severe acute respiratory syndrome) that attacked Taiwan resulted in 150,000 being quarantined but only 24 cases were laboratory confirmed.
Another report states Taiwan had 154 reported cases and 31 SARS deaths in 2003.
There was also a very low reported transmission rate for SARS in Thailand. By March of 2003 there were only five suspected cases of SARS in Thailand, all from infection acquired outside the country.
However, SARS must have spread far beyond those reported numbers. There must have been many non-laboratory-confirmed cases that didn't require doctoring or hospitalization and therefore never got on the COVID-19 counts.
A more extensive "spreading" study found a single SARS-infected patient in Taiwan exposed more than 10,000 people to this infectious disease. So obviously, many millions were exposed and infected.
Dr. Johan Giesecke says:
"Everyone will be exposed to COVID-19 coronavirus and most people will become infected. COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in all countries, but we do not see it – it almost always spreads from younger people with no or weak symptoms to other people who will have mild symptoms… there is very little we can do to prevent this spread… I expect the number of deaths from COVID-19 will be similar regardless of measures taken… it is not certain vaccines will be very effective."
Financial incentives skew death rate
Financial incentive may be a reason for up-coding hospital insurance billings for pneumonia or tuberculosis to COVID-19 that result in falsely high pandemic numbers.
Meanwhile, back in the good old US-of-A hospitals oppose a new ruling that a positive COVID-19 blood test be required for Medicare funding of care. US hospitals say the requirement unfairly deprives them of relief money established by Congress.
Legislation in March of 2020 provided US hospitals a 20% boost to the standard federal Medicare reimbursement for each patient admitted for COVID-19 coronavirus.
But the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) added a requirement, which took effect Sept. 1. For hospitals to receive the funding, each patient must have a documented positive Covid-19 lab test.
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services is concerned that without a lab test showing someone has Covid-19, hospitals may code hospital admissions for lung infections incorrectly as having the virus and erroneously receive the 20% add-on.
Now let's see what happens to the extraordinary COVID-19 death rates being reported in the US compared to other developed countries .
Ireland: another case of deception
Health Services Ireland reports, as of Feb. 9, 2020, in a population of 4.9 million, there have been 1,777 deaths, with 1677 of these deaths having co-morbid conditions, and only 94 cases admitted to ICU with median age 84, which is two years beyond the average life expectancy. That only leaves 100 deaths solely attributed to COVID-19 alone over a period of six months.
Basically, COVID-19 kills people who are already on their deathbed. Despite no new deaths over a 2-week period, Ireland's health authorities were considering another lockdown.
The antibody deception
Herd immunity is said to require 60-70% of a population to be immune, either via vaccination or naturally acquired immunity from viral spread in the community.
The standard way of determining herd immunity has been to assess antibody levels Based on antibody studies just 17% of people in London and Sweden were infected and recovered. That is a long way from achieving herd immunity.
That leaves 83% who would potentially benefit from immunization. Vaccine advocates claim: "This is how vaccines can be effective without 100% vaccination coverage."
The virus failed to cooperate
But then events unfolded and as summer approached, lockdowns were relaxed and something unexpected happened. The reopening of countries in Europe was met with a steep decline in the number of new laboratory-confirmed cases.
These re-openings occurred as the earth reached its summer solstice in the northern hemisphere and populations had greater skin exposure to the sun as temperatures rose. Rising sunshine vitamin D levels may have played a role in this unexpected decline. Coronaviruses have a cycle on the calendar, arising in December and ending in April in the northern hemisphere.
Unexposed populations had prior infection and immunity
Furthermore, it was discovered that coronavirus-killing T-cells were evidenced in 40-60% of populations that were not priorly exposed to COVID-19 How could this be?
So many millions of people with prior exposure to "common cold" coronaviruses were already immune to COVID-19. The need to intensely enforce social distancing is reduced by 50% if a third of the population is already immune. Don't tell the overly compliant masses or derelict health authorities.
With flu pandemics, herd immunity is usually attained after two-to-three epidemic waves. Normally it would take a long time to achieve herd immunity and vaccination would be welcome.
Despite contrary data presented in this report, researchers dogmatically conclude "an effective vaccine presents the safest way to reach herd immunity."
However, more than 90% of human populations are already positive for at least three of the "common cold" coronaviruses. Prior coronavirus infections confer protection for COVID-19.
If 90% have been previously infected and are now presumably immune, why is everybody taught to hold their breath for a vaccine?
Infection underestimated
Researchers unexpectedly report in the British Medical Journal that virologists could be vastly underestimating infection rates. At fault is the failure to test for different type of antibodies. Even entirely asymptomatic cases often mount a significant antibody response. Initially these antibodies were thought to last only a few months
However while it was initially believed antibodies against COVID-19 were fleeting, it was found that a second infection may offer more lasting protection, at least 4 months.
More recently there are reports of much longer lasting immunity. Of particular interest is a small study showing 21 of 23 patients infected with SARS (a related but more severe coronavirus) exhibited antibodies and 14 of these 23 patients had memory-T-cells that afford long-term immunity six years post infection. So, prior coronavirus infections can result in long-term COVID-19 immunity.
Everyone gets COVID
But wait. Yet another startling discovery published in the journal CELL states: "everyone who gets COVID-19, even people with mild or asymptomatic cases, develop zinc-dependent T cells that can hunt down the coronavirus if they get exposed again years later."
It's possible robust memory T-cell responses are maintained in the absence of detectable antibodies against COVID-19. Even 28% of unexposed patients exhibited T-cell responses against COVID-19! The importance of zinc to produce T-cells cannot be overemphasized.
Overlooked herd immunity threshold
Conventional estimates are when 60-70% of population is immune, herd immunity is in play. A multi-national team of infectious disease investigators posits that once as few as 10-20% of individuals are immune, herd immunity may be in play depending on susceptibility and exposure of the population. The most susceptible individuals become ill, some die, and fewer individuals remain who are not infected.
Achievement of herd or natural immunity may be more urgent than initially realized. There may never be a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine. Lowering the threshold for herd immunity may be more a more practical and expedient approach. But what to do with all those billions of dollars of vaccines the US and other countries have already purchased from vaccine makers?
Universal supplementation with zinc capsules or lozenges (particularly when ill) to boost memory T-cells and vitamin D to increase white blood cell activity (neutrophils) and an increased exposure to the virus (reverse-lockdown) may accelerate herd immunity.
It would be entirely possible to achieve herd immunity with as little as 10-20% infection/immunity rate and avert the need for a vaccine for which there will never be 100% vaccination rate nor 100% efficacy.
But remember, very low death rates were achieved in Taiwan, Thailand and Ireland not by any intervention but simply by counting real COVID-19-only deaths, not improperly coding deaths due to other complicating lung diseases or symptoms, to collect greater insurance reimbursement.
Prior coronavirus epidemic produced lasting immunity
A major problem only belatedly realized is that any prior "common-cold" coronavirus infection is picked up and mistakenly considered active COVID-19 infection. This has led to a lot of false positives and thrown the whole idea of testing into a turmoil.
Mischaracterization of infected individuals
A confusing factor is how the news media and medical authorities characterize those who test positive for COVID-19. For example, it is reported twice as many New Yorkers tested positive for antibodies in poor neighborhoods. People in the Bronx were 33.1% positive for antibodies versus 10% for wealthier Manhattan. But don't pity the poor in the Bronx. Presumably only 66% in the Bronx need to be vaccinated vs. 90% in Manhattan.
They test positive but don't shed enough virus to spread it to others
Then we have the revelation 90% of people diagnosed with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 coronavirus may not be carrying enough of it to infect anyone else.
The reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test is how COVID-19 coronavirus infections are diagnosed.
The test puts living viruses through doubling cycles to amplify how much virus is produced.
Cycle thresholds are the times that the amplifying test has to be repeated to get a positive result. The higher the viral concentration the fewer amplification cycles are necessary to confirm the virus.
RT-PCR uses an enzyme called reverse transcriptase to change a specific piece of RNA into a matching piece of DNA. The PCR test then amplifies the DNA exponentially, by doubling the number of molecules time and again.
The Center For Evidenced Based Medicine offers an online description of the PCR test.
Up to 90% of people diagnosed with COVID-19 barely carry any traces of the virus Why is everybody advised to take such draconian measures for this single cold virus when lung infections like tuberculosis are far deadlier?
Draconian measures unjustified
The lockdowns and social distancing and mask wearing measures are categorically ineffective. It's not easy for modern medicine to concede that.
In fact, lockdowns just resulted in forty percent (40%) of elderly patients are getting sick from family members in the same apartments.
CDC recommends people who have had close contact (within 6 feet of an infected person for at least 15 minutes) with someone with confirmed COVID-19 should undergo testing for COVID-19.
Most people will not come into prolonged proximity with others outside the home. The glove/mask wearing and hand washing measures become superfluous stress relievers, that is all.
No need for vaccine
Taiwan, Thailand and Ireland don't need a vaccine. Maybe even the US would realize it will not significantly benefit from vaccination if its death count was real rather than inflated by categorizing normal seasonal pneumonia as COVID-19.
Thailand is not issuing a purchase order for a vaccine from major pharmaceutical manufacturers as other countries are. Thailand plans to develop their own homegrown vaccine. But Thai people don't need to be vaccinated. An estimated 68,999,942 Thailanders would have to be vaccinated to save one life (~8 in 10 million).
If modern medicine were a science-based profession, it would heed these new findings in infectious disease. But we know it isn't a science-based industry. Given the fact an estimated 65,000 additional lives have been lost in the US each month due to the lockdown, not the coronavirus, there is urgency to lift needless lockdown and other measures be classified as optional. Dr. Scott Atlas says the COVID-19 lockdown "will go down as the most heinous misapplication of public policy in modern America"
